Systematic analysis of risk visualization strategies for homeland defense

An approach to conduct systematic analysis of risk visualization strategies in a homeland missile defense context is presented. The approach consists of three phases which take different perspectives toward characterizing the problems of resource management and allocation for defense against missile attacks. Decision makers in missile defense are supervisory controllers of highly automated and resource-constrained systems. Our approach is suggested as a method to assess the effectiveness of visualization strategies in a dynamic decision environment. The three phases of our approach included a test for subject utility preferences, a text for subject multi-attribute prefences using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and a test for subject action selection using a human-in-the-loop simulation test bed. Our approach is proposed to systematically evaluate the effectiveness of multistage decision making strategies against immediate and delayed threats. The alternatives were calculated based on expected cases of lives lost as a result of attacks on defended areas. Implementation of the test bed enabled us to investigate the effect of visualization formats on decision behaviour. Some preliminary results based on a pilot study will be presented. The implications of our study extend beyond missile defense. In a world where catastrophic loss of civilian lives is seen by some as a victory, those entrusted with homeland security must effectively manage limited resources to combat terrorist activities. Effective visualization formats will help to promote decision that are informed with respect to the risks and outcomes.