Factors affecting emission changes of considering IPPs in power sector planning

This paper examines the factors which affect the CO₂ emission changes in the economy as a whole due to considering independent power producers (IPPs) in the Indonesian power sector during 2003-2017 by using an input-output decomposition model. From the development of the decomposition model, it is found that there are four major components that affect the total economy-wide change in CO₂ emissions, i.e., fuel mix-, structural-, final demand- and joint-effects. The results show that if the minimum operating mode of IPPs is increased from 60 to 80%, the CO₂ mitigations would increase from 40 to 84 million tons during the planning horizon. Of the total CO₂ mitigations, the fuel mix- and structural-effects would increase the CO₂ mitigations, however, the final demand- and joint-effect would act in the opposite direction under all minimum operating mode cases.