A probability based predictive reconfiguration method for shipboard power systems

The electric power systems in U.S. Navy ships supply energy to sophisticated systems for weapons, communications, navigation and operation. During battle, various weapons might attack a ship causing severe damage to the electrical system on the ship. This damage can lead to deenergization of critical loads on a ship which can eventually decrease a ship´s ability to survive the attack. It is very important, therefore, to maintain availability of energy to the loads that keep the power system operational. There exists technology that enables the detection of an incoming weapon and prediction of the geographic area where the incoming weapon hits a ship. This information can be used to determine reconfiguration actions which can be taken before the actual hit, so that the damage to the electrical system is reduced. This paper presents a new fully automated probabilistic methodology to determine such reconfiguration actions. This probabilistic approach includes a method to assess the damage to the electrical system that will be caused by a weapon-hit. This method calculates the expected probability of damage for each electrical component on the ship. Also a heuristic method is included, which uses the expected probability of damage to determine reconfiguration control actions to reconfigure the ship´s electrical network to reduce the damage caused by a weapon-hit. A case study is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the new methodology.