Strategic assessment of supply options in power systems with significant resource uncertainty

This paper presents a decision analysis approach for the assessment of options available to power systems with significant supply uncertainty. The approach considers the cost, effectiveness, and benefits of all appropriate, available, and feasible options. These include both, supply-side and demand-side options. The paper also provides details about the implementation of the approach in terms of a computer model developed specifically for each particular case. In addition, we illustrate the use of hedging strategies for the mitigation of the exposure to risk, and present the results of the application of the proposed approach in two developing countries: Malawi and Venezuela.