Title :
Load forecasting model of power system based on Lyapunov index
Author :
Lu, Zhan-Hui ; Zhu, Zhi-Hong ; Li, Jing-Quan
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Appl. Math., North China Electr. Power Univ., Baoding, China
Abstract :
By analyzing the non-linear chaos characteristic of the power load time sequence, this paper sets up a mathematic model, figures out the max Lyapunov index of the time sequence, identifies the chaos characteristic of the system and develops a load forecasting software to draw a graph of predicted value and actual value. The example indicates that the forecasting model using the Lyapunov index has higher predicting precision.
Keywords :
Lyapunov methods; chaos; graph theory; load forecasting; nonlinear dynamical systems; power engineering computing; power system control; sequences; Lyapunov index; graph theory; load forecasting model; load prediction; nonlinear chaos characteristic; power load time sequence; power system; Chaos; Delay; Economic forecasting; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Mathematics; Power system analysis computing; Power system modeling; Power system security; Predictive models; Load forecasting; Lyapunov index; Power system; chaos;
Conference_Titel :
Machine Learning and Cybernetics, 2005. Proceedings of 2005 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Guangzhou, China
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-9091-1
DOI :
10.1109/ICMLC.2005.1527783
