A real-time SHF propagation forecasting system using numerical weather predictions and radar measurements

For communication systems operating at EHF and SHF frequencies, propagation impairments caused by meteorological phenomena (such as cloud, rain, etc.) become significant. As a result, there is considerable interest in developing fade mitigation techniques. The test and development of these techniques requires simulation tools, particularly attenuation time-series generators. We present a method for the generation of attenuation time series using estimates of the meteorological environment from numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. We also make use of precipitation estimates derived from weather radar. Fractal downscaling of rain fields can also be performed in order to improve the spatio-temporal resolution of estimates by introducing a stochastic small-scale structure. Time series exhibit the correct first and second order characteristics, as well as the correct spatial correlation, and compare well to the ITU-R recommendations. There are two novelties to this approach: any number of time-coincident time series can be created for different locations; the process is directly applicable for the real-time prediction of propagation conditions. The latter offers the potential to aid in the management of radio resources, where knowledge of forthcoming fades, their depth and duration could be advantageous.