National airspace strategies for future demand scenarios in inclement weather

A number of factors have contributed to a significant increase in air transportation demand in recent decades. With continued competition, cost containment, and air transportation product diversification, this demand is projected to continue to increase in future years. Planners are now assuming a doubling (2X) and even tripling (3X) of demand in the coming decades. As demand grows, capacity limitations cause significant congestion, especially in off-nominal conditions such as heavy weather. The Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) is a multi-agency effort in the federal government. One JPDO mission is to investigate future NAS strategies. Adjustments to the current system can relieve future projected congestion to a limited extent. These adjustments, however, are insufficient to accommodate 2X and 3X scenarios. Inclement weather in such high demand scenarios will further aggravate congestion. More significant system transformation is required. Here we present a preliminary strategy for accommodating future NAS demand levels in the presence of heavy weather, and our methods for evaluating such strategies.