A Quantitative Analysis on Future World Marketability of HTS Power Industry

This study estimates total world market volumes of HTS power industry, one of the main smart grid equipment in the future when the market penetration ratio reaches 100% in the future. The results of this paper are based on the GOULDEN Report providing the total market volumes of conventional power industry for the world market. This study determines the market penetration ratio using the judgment method with market penetration S-curve induced from Delphi method and Product Life Cycle from 2011 (expected to be a launching year, not the actual year) to 2050 (expected to be a final target year). For this purpose, HTS market penetration ratio of each stage, so called innovation, early adapters, early/late majority and laggard stage, is analyzed using S-curve and thus calculated the total future market volumes of HTS equipment. In conclusion, this paper shows the quantitative analysis for HTS cable, FCL, transformer and rotational machine in the world market.