A Whole Information Method to Establish the Dynamic Early Warning Mechanism for Real Estate Enterprise

A new technical method to establish the dynamic early warning mechanism for a real estate enterprise is put forward. In the method, a dynamic quantitative early warning information estimating model about quantitative factors is put forward through establishment of three state transition equations to describe normal development, development speed and development inertia respectively; based on the equations, the dynamic scale forecast of each input, output and structural factor is made using the fading memory variable coefficient grey forecast model, CARMAX and Kalman filtering forecast method respectively; a dynamic qualitative early warning information estimating model about qualitative factors is put forward using CIA to calculate the cross influence degree between each pair of qualitative factors and using the system simulation and MCI to calculate the cross influence probabilities of qualitative factors. A comprehensive evaluation model about the quantitative and qualitative early warning information is put forward. The whole mechanism is applied to solve the problem of how to make out future developing strategies when a real estate enterprise faces changeable outer environments.