Title :
A Study on Progress Risk of IUR Commissioned R&D Project Based on GERT
Author :
Juan Zhang ; Yunna Wu ; Yong Huang
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Bus. Adm., North China Electr. Power Univ., Beijing
Abstract :
To study the progress risk of IUR commissioned R&D project, this paper identifies progress risk source first, then forecasts the R&D time required in total by constructing GERT network model of R&D flow. In the quantitative analysis, the mason formula is used to compute the transfer function of the GERT, and the moment generating function is used to compute the probability distribution of the R&D time and costs. This analytical solution is used to describe the risk of the commissioned R&D project. An example is given to illuminate how to use this analytical algorithm in the end.
Keywords :
PERT; research and development; risk analysis; statistical distributions; transfer functions; GERT; IUR commissioned R&D project; probability distribution; progress risk; transfer function; Collaboration; Costs; Distributed computing; Personnel; Probability distribution; Quality management; Research and development; Risk analysis; Technological innovation; Uncertainty;
Conference_Titel :
Wireless Communications, Networking and Mobile Computing, 2008. WiCOM '08. 4th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Dalian
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2107-7
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2108-4
DOI :
10.1109/WiCom.2008.2471
