Evaluation of Dynamic Investment Risk Based on Evidential Reasoning for Power Generation Project

The investment risk at various stages in power generation project is a complex and dynamic system. There´re many uncertainty information in the process of investment. By analyzing the cost risks, time risks, environmental policy risks, financial risks and market risks in the preconstruction, construction and operating period of power generation project, a dynamic risk evaluating model which considered the attitude of investors and involved multistage, multifactor and multiagent is constructed. The evidential reasoning method is used to transform a variety of uncertain qualitative indicators affecting risk into the quantitative ones, giving a scientific and reasonable evaluation to the dynamic investment risk of power generation project.