Title :
A Nonlinear Dynamics Approach for Forecasting Urban Water Resources Demand
Author :
Zhang, X.H. ; Zhang, H.W. ; Tian, L. ; Zhang, B.A.
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Environ. Syst. Anal., Tianjin Polytech. Univ., Tianjin
Abstract :
According to the characteristics of urban water resources system, a nonlinear dynamics approach for forecasting urban water demand was introduced in order to give scientific support to sound plan of waterworks and its appendix building. Based on analysis of water resources in Qinhuangdao, a system dynamics (SD) model was developed for water system simulation of the city for forecasting the tendency of the planning years. The practical verification shows this method forecast relative error is lower than 10%. Finally, the strong support to optimal decisionmaking is shown by applying SD model in policy adjusting simulation and decision making design.
Keywords :
distributed decision making; nonlinear dynamical systems; strategic planning; water resources; nonlinear dynamics approach; optimal decision-making; urban water resources demand; Cities and towns; Demand forecasting; Economic forecasting; Economic indicators; Environmental management; Feedback; Nonlinear dynamical systems; Predictive models; Sensitivity analysis; Water resources;
Conference_Titel :
Wireless Communications, Networking and Mobile Computing, 2008. WiCOM '08. 4th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Dalian
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2107-7
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2108-4
DOI :
10.1109/WiCom.2008.2733
