Predicting Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics Under Various Scenarios using Data Assimilation Strategy: a Case Study in the North China Plain

It is of great significance to predict soil organic carbon (SOC) stock of North China Plain which is one of the most important grain production bases with wheat-corn rotation as its main cropping system in China. In this study, a data simulation strategy is developed to predict SOC stock which is featured by the syntheses of two models, Estimation System for Agricultural Productivity (ESAP) and the spatial explicit SOC decomposition model. Model-based simulation indicates that the SOC stock in the agricultural soils of North China Plain would change in a nonlinear trend in the next two decades.