Forecasting infrastructure needs in a changing climate, an applied approach within electricity distribution

Accurately forecasting infrastructure needs is a complex process. Infrastructure is the backbone of industry and ideally it should be established before it is needed. This timing issue however, makes it difficult to accurately forecast where and when infrastructure investments should be made. The process becomes even more complex when changes in the weather affect the use of the infrastructure, as the weather is not only volatile it is also changing over time - decreasing the relevance of longer-term climate averages as a basis for forecasting. This paper looks at a forecasting process for infrastructure investment, which takes into account weather volatility & climate changes, as well as economic growth and demographic changes in the customer base.