Probabilistic Reliability Planning at British Columbia Transmission Corporation: Method and Project Case

This paper presents a probabilistic reliability planning method for transmission systems. The core of the method is the quantified reliability evaluation technique, which is based on Monte Carlo simulation for transmission and generation and an analytical multiple-state model for an HVDC system. The planning procedure includes comparison among reinforcement alternatives, effect study of retired components, contingency plan for possible delay of the reinforcement project, and probabilistic economic analysis for the in-service year. An actual reinforcement project for the Vancouver Island supply system at British Columbia Transmission Corporation is used to demonstrate the step by step planning procedure.