New disaggregated demand forecast methodology considering energy efficiency, DSM and DGG

Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) have obligations to develop their networks in an economic and efficient away. Moreover, DNOs need to ensure that their networks can support long term growth in electricity demand. This will determine the need for reinforcement or new construction. This paper describes a new and robust long-term maximum load demand forecast methodology, which has been developed at EDF Energy Networks, UK. The methodology is based on high-level publicly available information in respect of projected regional housing and employment growth, which are key drivers of electricity demand. This information is used in conjunction with regional electricity usage indices. The impact of changes in energy usage, the growth of distributed generation and demand side management are also considered.