Stochastic prospect value model for simultaneous route choice

Following the studies of human decision making under risk and uncertainty, traffic scientists had applied prospect theory to route choice modeling, and studied prospect value user equilibrium. But most papers focused on that the travelers choose route one by one basing on prospect theory, did not study collective effect of simultaneous route choice. The paper analyzed the influence factors on travel time uncertainty. Following the modeling method of stochastic expected utility theory, we put forward stochastic prospect value model. For one OD pair toy network, we calculated stochastic prospect value traffic assignment for different reference point for day-to-day route choice, in which disseminated information is the latest day travel time. Lastly, we compared the flow pattern between stochastic prospect value traffic assignment and stochastic expected utility traffic assignment. Simultaneous route choice don´t converge to equilibrium, and the larger the reference point is, the smaller flow fluctuation is.