Fuzzy Travel Time Reliability with Uncertainty

Fuzzy travel time reliability on road network is presented in the paper, which shows travelers´ expected travel time and tolerance to delay by membership function. In virtue of the stochastic users´ equilibrium model, the fuzzy travel time reliability is obtained under day-to-day variations in travel demand. A scenario-based analysis method is proposed to estimate the probability of a path travel time within a given threshold comparing with Monte Carlo method. Illustrative numerical tests are performed in a simple network, where the distinction between conventional and fuzzy travel time reliability is analyzed, the effect of travelers´ perceptive parameter, threshold, on reliability is examined, and the scenario-based analysis method is proposed to obtain fuzzy travel time reliability efficiently.