Title :
Forecasting Model of Agricultural Products Prices in Wholesale Markets Based on Combined BP Neural Network -Time Series Model
Author :
Yu, Shouhua ; Ou, Jingying
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Inf., South China Agric. Univ., Guangzhou, China
Abstract :
By considering the characteristics of agricultural products prices such as great fluctuations, nonstationarity and nonlinearity, a BP neural network model was designed for forecasting and verified by real data from some agricultural products wholesale markets. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, a combination model of BP neural network and time series prediction was constructed to forecast prices of agricultural products in wholesale markets. After learning from sample data, it can better forecast the trend and fluctuations of the agricultural products wholesale prices, and with those real data better prediction results were attained. The combined model provides an important method for predicting prices in agricultural products wholesale markets.
Keywords :
agricultural products; forecasting theory; neural nets; time series; agricultural products prices; combined BP neural network-time series model; forecasting model; wholesale markets; Agricultural products; Artificial neural networks; Demand forecasting; Economic forecasting; Educational institutions; Fluctuations; Innovation management; Neural networks; Predictive models; Production; BP Neural Network Model; Time Series Model; agricultural products wholesale prices; forecast;
Conference_Titel :
Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, 2009 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Xi´an
Print_ISBN :
978-0-7695-3876-1
DOI :
10.1109/ICIII.2009.140
