Forecasting real-time ratings for electricity distribution networks using weather forecast data

Currently the operators of electrical distribution networks face a number of challenges, such as load growth, the proliferation of distributed generation and ageing infrastructure. This is drawing attention to techniques which will allow more efficient asset utilisation and facilitate network dynamic management. Power system component real-time ratings are a cost effective solution for increasing network power transfer capacity. Instantaneous ratings can be used for this purpose, but distribution network operator decision making capability regarding network power flow management would be enhanced by the adoption of rating forecasts. Therefore this paper presents an investigation into the technical challenges and potential benefits of power system component rating forecasts. Weather forecasts are used with power system component thermal models and a state estimation technique for calculating rating forecasts at different time horizons.