Title :
Risk Assessment of Thermal Power Plant Project Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process in the Early Operation
Author :
Lidong, Duan ; Dongxiao, Hiu ; Haitao, Lv ; Bingen, Kou
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Bus. & Manage., North China Electr. Power Univ., Beijing, China
Abstract :
As the development of technology, the enterprises of our country have came into the stage of all-round risk management. But there are still many problems in the initial stage of risk management about thermal power plant projects. This paper brings forward the concept of initial risk evaluation about constructive projects in thermal power plant, puts forward and builds the evaluation index system for the first time. Besides we develop traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP) using triangular fuzzy numbers according to the subjective fuzziness of experts´ judging, so to solve the weight of index in each level. Integrated with the idiographic thermal power units, the risk level of the thermal project is evaluated according to the membership degree of risk.
Keywords :
decision making; fuzzy set theory; project management; risk management; statistical analysis; thermal power stations; all-round risk management; fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; idiographic thermal power units; initial risk evaluation; risk assessment; the evaluation index system; thermal power plant project; triangular fuzzy numbers; Computer science; Costs; Environmental economics; Investments; Power engineering and energy; Power generation; Power generation economics; Risk analysis; Risk management; Thermal management; Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process; initial risk assessment; thermal power plant;
Conference_Titel :
Computer Science and Engineering, 2009. WCSE '09. Second International Workshop on
Conference_Location :
Qingdao
Print_ISBN :
978-0-7695-3881-5
DOI :
10.1109/WCSE.2009.713