An application of Monte Carlo simulation: Activity based urban travel demand forecast modeling

Author

Chen, Min ; Lu, Jian ; Shao, Yunhong

Author_Institution

Transp. Coll., Southeast Univ., Nanjing, China

Volume

4

fYear

2010

fDate

25-27 June 2010

Abstract

In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Monte Carlo simulation method on the estimation of the urban travel demand and have established a model with this method. Our model is based on the probability distribution of the individual activities characteristics, including typical activity chain patterns, activity time, activity location, travel mode, which is obtained by analyzing the survey data. In the simulation model, people are divided into several groups on the basis of their socio-economic characteristics. By simulating the individual daily travel activities of various groups, we can estimate the urban travel demand for the whole city.

Keywords

Monte Carlo methods; demand forecasting; probability; transportation; Monte Carlo simulation method; activity based urban travel demand forecast modeling; activity chain patterns; activity location; activity time; probability distribution; socio-economic characteristics; travel mode; Application software; Cities and towns; Computational modeling; Computer simulation; Demand forecasting; Educational institutions; Optimization methods; Predictive models; Road transportation; Traffic control; Monte Carlo simulation; activity chain; demand forecasting; urban travel demand;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Computer Design and Applications (ICCDA), 2010 International Conference on

Conference_Location

Qinhuangdao

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-7164-5

Electronic_ISBN

978-1-4244-7164-5

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICCDA.2010.5541175

Filename

5541175