The utilities´ optimal reserve purchasing strategy under the energy-saving dispatching environment based on fuzzy probability theory

China is going to realize clean power generation in the future, and introducing energy-saving dispatch is one of the important measures taken. Although this new dispatch model can generate great benefit for the society, the utility will bare increasing reserve purchasing costs. This paper dealt with the optimal reserve purchasing strategy for the utilities. The optimal energy purchase model under the energy-saving dispatch environment was constructed, and based on this the optimal reserve purchasing strategy model was constructed, in which the fuzzy probability theory was used to describe the fuzzy information about the power failure of the renewable power units. The final case study shows the energy-saving dispatch will indeed increase the reserve purchase costs for the electric power utilities, and the fuzzy probability theory can effectively deal with the fuzzy environment about the renewable power units.