Research on the Demand Forecast of Emergency Material Based on Fuzzy Markov Chain

Demand forecast of emergency material is the precondition and foundation of planning emergency material storage strategy. Because of the emergency logistics have the characteristic as follows: sudden, uncertainty, non-conventional, the weak economy, complexity and so on, On the basis of defining the fuzzy condition and fuzzy transfer probability, the paper divides the emergency material demand into five fuzzy conditions: very small demand, small demand, general demand, high demand and very high demand, and proposes a forecast model of emergency material requirement based on fuzzy Markov chain. Finally, the availability of the proposed method was verified by analyzing the numerical example.