Estimation of Rear-ends Accidents Caused by the Delay of Controlling Behaviors

Supposed the perception of traffic information and the controlling decision of vehicles are correct. The delay of controlling actions is researched in the paper, and the function of driver non-response probability is advanced. Based on the function, the timing curve of divers´ response is made. Then the risk model of Rear-ends accidents is established to evaluate the probability of Rear-end accident, according to the theory named ANFIS, whose input are the headway distance, velocity of the following vehicle, the difference of the leading and following vehicle and the non-response probability, whose output is the probability of Rear-end accidents. The example shown in the paper could testify that the relationship of the outputs and the inputs got by the model are correct, and the model advanced could assess the risk degree of Rear-end accidence.