Title :
Revision of marginal probability assessments
Author :
Jones, P. ; Mitter, S. ; Saligrama, V.
Author_Institution :
EECS Dept, Massachusetts Inst. of Technol., Cambridge, MA, USA
Abstract :
Sets of experts are frequently called upon to assess the occurrance probability of uncertain events. Often, the events being assessed are structurally interrelated, levying constraints on the assessements. However, expert panels frequently violate those constraints, resulting in internally inconsistent probability assessments. Based on a formulation of coherence due to de Finetti, we investigate methods for optimally modifying expert assessments to match structural constraints on the joint probability distribution over the set of events.
Keywords :
statistical distributions; expert assessments; joint probability distribution; marginal probability assessment; occurrence probability; Approximation methods; Coherence; Cost function; Joints; Matrix decomposition; Random variables; Probability theory; coherence; distributed probability assessment;
Conference_Titel :
Information Fusion (FUSION), 2010 13th Conference on
Conference_Location :
Edinburgh
Print_ISBN :
978-0-9824438-1-1
DOI :
10.1109/ICIF.2010.5711875