Assessing the Climate Impact of Renewable Energy Targets by Bottom-Up Modeling

Power sector, as the biggest contributor to the total CO2 emission of China, is faced with tremendous pressure and challenge. The transformation of the whole sector based on the technological innovation and/or introduction appears to be indispensable, which is already recognized by domestic government. Many a measure are taken into practice, such as updating the renewable energies development targets, the differential electricity price, as well as the compulsory quota of renewable electricity generation with the establishment of fossil-fired units. This study shows the changes to the energy mix by these activities and the relative mitigation effects, as well as mitigation costs, applying a linear bottom-up optimization programming model (BOMCES). Regarding the task, two scenarios are set up: business-as-usual scenario and renewable targets scenario. Based on the comparison of these scenarios, detailed but significant conclusions for policy decision are drawn up.