• DocumentCode
    552975
  • Title

    Which is better for inflation forecasting? Neural networks or data mining

  • Author

    Somaratna, P.E. ; Arunatilaka, S. ; Premarathna, L.

  • Author_Institution
    Sch. of Comput., Univ. of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka
  • fYear
    2010
  • fDate
    28-30 June 2010
  • Firstpage
    116
  • Lastpage
    121
  • Abstract
    In present context, Information Technology (IT) is used in every field whether it is Business, Social Service or Entertainment. However, application of IT in economic field is very limited. Stability and healthiness of a country´s economy directly connects with the accuracy of forecasted Inflation rate. With the recession raised at end of year 2008, world communities pay much attention on inflation and put huge efforts to predict it accurately. Neural networking and data mining are two IT techniques that are commonly used in forecasting and hidden pattern recognition. We have applied both of these techniques to the theoretically sound data set with the intention of identifying most appropriate IT forecasting technique for forecasting the inflation rate. Since forecasted inflation rate directly link with country´s monetary policy, accuracy of predictions is very significant. Further continuity of government as well as the economy depends on these decisions. Through this study we were able to identify appropriate characteristics of neural networks and Data mining techniques in case of forecasting inflation rate with high accuracy.
  • Keywords
    data mining; economic cycles; economic forecasting; government policies; inflation (monetary); macroeconomics; neural nets; pattern recognition; IT forecasting technique; country monetary policy; data mining; economic field; hidden pattern recognition; inflation forecasting; information technology; neural networks; recession; Biological neural networks; Data mining; Data models; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Training;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Information Society (i-Society), 2010 International Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    London
  • Print_ISBN
    978-1-4577-1823-6
  • Electronic_ISBN
    978-0-9564263-3-8
  • Type

    conf

  • Filename
    6018807