Posterior probability prediction on the key subsystem of machining center

In order to predict the fault probability when the MC is faulty or going to be faulty, a posterior probability method is proposed. Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis(FMECA) is used for finding out the key subsystem which affects the Machining Center´s reliability most seriously. Then, the empirical models of the key subsystem and the whole Machining Center are built based on the fault time, under the assumption that the Machining Center is a Series System, the posterior probability of the key subsystem is obtained by Bayesian theory. The case example shows that the fault probability of the key subsystem changes as the whole system fault probability changes. At a given time t, the fault probability of the key subsystem can be calculated by the empirical models of the key subsystem and whole system.