Forecasting analysis for global copper clad laminate market

Author

Hsiao, Yu-Yao ; Wang, Fu-Kwun

Author_Institution

Grad. Inst. of Manage., Nat. Taiwan Univ. of Sci. & Technol., Taipei, Taiwan

fYear

2011

fDate

24-26 Oct. 2011

Firstpage

217

Lastpage

221

Abstract

Demand forecasting is one of critical reference by top managers to make the strategy decision for future investment. The copper clad laminate(CCL) is the key material for print circuit board(PCB) and it can apply for consumer, computer, LCD, communication, automotive, aero space, medicine and defense application. The total global sale for PCB in 2008 is US$ 48.2 billion. In this research, we use grey model GM(1, 1), rolling grey model(RGM) and Bass diffusion model to analysis global CCL market by six market segments - paper, composite, FR-4, FR-4 High Tg, FR-4 halogen free, Specialty between 2001-2008. The forecasting accuracy of global CCL market by six market segment was evaluated along with mean absolute percentage error(MAPE). In this study, Bass diffusion model MAPE outperforms the others two models GM(1, 1) and RGM for this global CCL market forecasting analysis and is recommend for global CCL market forecasting analysis.

Keywords

claddings; copper; demand forecasting; grey systems; laminates; market opportunities; market research; printed circuits; time series; Bass diffusion model; GM(1,1) grey model; copper clad laminates; demand forecasting analysis; global CCL market forecasting analysis; investment; mean absolute percentage error; print circuit board; rolling grey model; Adaptation models; Analytical models; Data models; Forecasting; Integrated circuit modeling; Mathematical model; Predictive models; 1); Bass diffusion model; Copper clad laminate; GM(1; Print circuit board; Rolling GM;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Data Mining and Intelligent Information Technology Applications (ICMiA), 2011 3rd International Conference on

Conference_Location

Macao

Print_ISBN

978-1-4673-0231-9

Type

conf

Filename

6108432