Title :
Innovative Application of Grey System Power Model and the Forecasting of Chinese Real Effective Exchange Rate under Information Fluctuation with Saturated Mode
Author :
Chen, Fuzhong ; Chen, Cheng
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Bus., Renmin Univ. of China, Beijing, China
Abstract :
Taking the data of Chinese real effective exchange rate (REER) as sample, the grey system Verhulst model is employed to investigate the changing tendencies innovatively. The forecasting result indicates that Chinese REER will depreciate with the improved accuracy of 97.35% by weakening operator. Only ten month data is employed, which overcomes the sample limitation of general statistical models and proves the forecasting efficiency of the Verhulst model. Additionally, the forecasting result is in line with the internal and external economic environment, and hence, the robustness is demonstrated significantly. According to the total simulation process, the applicability of the Verhulst model has been revealed successfully.
Keywords :
economic forecasting; exchange rates; grey systems; statistical analysis; Chinese real effective exchange rate forecasting; economic environment; grey system Verhulst model; grey system power model; information fluctuation; saturated mode; statistical models; Accuracy; Data models; Exchange rates; Fluctuations; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Forecastig Application; Grey System Power Model; Methodological Innovation; Real Effective Exchange Rate;
Conference_Titel :
Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering (ICIII), 2011 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Shenzhen
Print_ISBN :
978-1-61284-450-3
DOI :
10.1109/ICIII.2011.110
