Determining the contribution of urban region in the National Target Total Fertility Rate using fuzzy AHP

This paper proposes a decision support model to determine the contribution of urban region in the National Target Total Fertility Rate using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP). The proposed model supports in regional sustainability developing regarding family planning programs by determining, and reducing the contribution of each governorate in Urban region of TFR and its fertility rate taking into consideration its socio-economic context including women education level, percent of young women, infant mortality, age at first marriage, women working status, spouse level of education, family income, and place of residence. The FAHP is employed to determine the contribution of each governorate in urban region to the required reduction of regional TFR targets. All assessments of selected criteria are assessed and because of uncertainty we are using fuzzy AHP by five experts´ opinions in the domain of family planning to reflect its impact and contributions into governorate TFR. The proposed model is implemented in urban region of Egypt to disaggregate the national TFR into regional TFR to achieve its required reduction level. The obtained results showed that the proposed model performed well in introducing a set of governorates targets that achieves the regional goal and is consistent with the characteristics of each governorate.