Operation risk analysis of smart distribution network based on dynamic probability power flow

Disturbance sources such as wind power generation, solar photovoltaic system, micro power grid and electric vehicle have dual characteristics of regularity and randomness in smart distribution network, and the characteristics are quite different. The characteristic of traditional loads makes a change because of newest diversity loads such as charge facilities of electric vehicle. Solar photovoltaic system and traditional loads have strong intermittence, while wind power generation is dominated by randomness. Based on the analysis on their operation characteristics, dynamic probability model is built to decouple change curve into regular parts and random parts. State variables of the operation states of smart distribution network are described and the operation risk is analyzed on the basis of dynamic probability power flow. The simulation analysis to a distribution network was executed. The results show the main influence factors of operation risk of smart distribution network and the model presented in this paper is effective.