A study on risk factors in decision making structure of government R&D investment

A pre-feasibility study on government R&D programs, which was introduced in 2008 by Korean government, performs in a comprehensive and systematic way: not only economic analysis, but also technological and policy analyses have been included in the analysis framework. Among the criteria, a provision against risk factors is crucial one, because poorly prepared programs are prone to fail, extend the period or increase budget size. Even though many researchers have studied on risk analysis of public investment, we cannot find definite results in the field of government R&D investment due to measurement problems or lack of reliable data. In this study, we analyzed pre-feasibility studies on government R&D programs, which have been carried out since 2008. The contents and weightings on final results in cases were examined. Also we carried out an expert survey in order to investigate the opinions on risk analysis in the ex-ante evaluation. Not only the budget problem but also diverse factors are enumerated as the risk factors which should be dealt in ex-ante evaluation on R&D programs.