Simulation Analysis of Criticality Indexes of Activities in GERT Networks

In this paper, Criticality Indexes of activities in GERT network are defined as ratios of the relative change extent of project characteristics to the relative variation degree of activities´ parameters. Monte-Carlo simulation method is utilized to solve GERT network and based on this method the procedure to calculate Criticality Indexes of activities is derived. A practical R&D project is used to illustrate the results of this paper. The Criticality Indexes of the activities of the project are calculated and their variation curves are depicted. Based on the results, the managers may find the activities which influence the project makespan more evidently and thus need to be paid more attention to in the course of the project execution. In addition, the results can provide useful guidance for the project managers to take effective control measures as well.