Study on Risk Evaluation of Henan grid´s Transfer Capability Based on Uncertainty of Synthetic Load Model

The uncertainty of electrical power load has much effect on power grid´s transfer capability. From the point of spreading Synthetic Load Model by State Grid Company, a risk assessment algorithm for power grid´s transfer capability was developed, which was based on the risk source of uncertainty of electrical power load parameter. The risk aroused by uncertainty of electrical power load parameter was investigated, including sensitivity/adaptability analysis of load parameter, grid´s transfer capability limit, load parameter´s expected value model of fuzzy-random variable, and grid´s transfer capability risk assessment. The emulation result of Henan grid indicated the algorithm could assess the risk of Henan grid´s transfer capability from the view of security and economics, and it was important to the security and reliability of Henan grid.