The simulation and forecast of new type of rural social endowment insurance´s target rate of substitution in Yunnan Province

On the basis of the State Council´s instruction opinion about the pilot of a new rural society endowment insurance (NRSEI for short) which is promulgated in 2009, using the actuarial technology, constructing the model of target rate of substitution of NRSEI pension, and applying the model to practice, I predict the target rate of substitution of NRSEI pension in Yunnan Province. Through the analysis of the forecast results, I´d like to put forward the following Suggestions: using farmers´ net income as payment base to achieve the Proportion Pay Cost System; encouraging farmers to choose the higher pay cost class, participating in NRSEI and keeping long-term pay cost.