Title :
Focused Time Delay Neural Network Model for Rainfall Prediction Using Indian Ocean Dipole Index
Author :
Charaniya, N.A. ; Dudul, S.V.
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electron., B.N.Coll. of Eng., Pusad, India
Abstract :
Indian monsoon rainfall is a process which is dependent on number of ecological and geographical parameter. This makes it very difficult to accurately predict the monsoon rainfall. As India is agriculture base country a long range monsoon rainfall prediction is crucial for proper planning and management of agriculture strategy. Many researcher have identified influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the inter annual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean. It is normally characterized by anomalous cooling of SST in the south eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and anomalous warming of SST in the western equatorial Indian Ocean. In this paper a Time lag neural network model with gamma memory processing neuron is proposed for one month ahead prediction of monsoon rainfall in the country based upon the Indian Ocean dipole parameter.
Keywords :
agriculture; atmospheric techniques; delays; ecology; geophysics computing; monsoons; neural nets; ocean temperature; oceanographic regions; rain; weather forecasting; IOD; ISMR; Indian Ocean Dipole index; Indian Ocean Dipole parameter; Indian summer monsoon rainfall prediction; SST; agriculture base country; agriculture strategy management; agriculture strategy planning; anomalous cooling; anomalous warming; coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon; ecological parameter; focused time delay neural network model; gamma memory processing neuron; geographical parameter; interannual variability; south eastern equatorial Indian Ocean; time lag neural network model; western equatorial Indian Ocean; Artificial neural networks; Biological neural networks; Forecasting; Neurons; Oceans; Predictive models; Focused time delay Neural Network; Indian ocean Dipole Index; Indian summer monsoon; Rainfall prediction;
Conference_Titel :
Computational Intelligence and Communication Networks (CICN), 2012 Fourth International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Mathura
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-2981-1
DOI :
10.1109/CICN.2012.116