Title :
Research on Multi-step Prediction of the Short-Term Information by Empirical Model Decomposition to Abnormal State Road Traffic Information
Author :
Lijie Liang ; Dexin Yu ; Xu Chang
Author_Institution :
Inst. of Urban Constr., Jilin Archit. & Civil Eng. Inst., Changchun, China
Abstract :
For the characteristics of road traffic information under the abnormal state, in this paper empirical mode decomposition method is selected for nonlinear decomposition, design the short-term prediction method of traffic flow parameters based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD), classify and recombinant the traffic flow parameters based on the fluctuation frequency, by using Gray theory model, Kalman filtering method and autoregressive moving average method to predict the traffic flow parameters, the combination forecasting model can overcome the large volatility characteristics of the road traffic information under abnormal state, get the predictive value of real-time traffic data, then assign weights with the historical traffic parameters data, use Multi-step prediction to get the final traffic parameters forecast results. The results show that the method has a high prediction accuracy, lay a solid foundation for further research.
Keywords :
Kalman filters; autoregressive moving average processes; forecasting theory; pattern classification; road traffic; traffic information systems; EMD; Gray theory model; Kalman filtering method; abnormal state road traffic information; autoregressive moving average method; combination forecasting model; empirical mode decomposition; empirical mode decomposition method; fluctuation frequency; nonlinear decomposition; traffic flow parameter classification; traffic flow parameter recombination; traffic flow parameter short-term multistep prediction method design; traffic parameter forecasting; volatility characteristics; weight assignment; Adaptation models; Autoregressive processes; Data models; Forecasting; Kalman filters; Predictive models; Roads; Autoregressive and Moving Average Model; Empirical Mode Decomposition; Grey Theoretical Prediction Model; Intrinsic Mode Function Reclassifications; Kalman Filter Prediction Model; Multi-step Prediction;
Conference_Titel :
Computer Science & Service System (CSSS), 2012 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Nanjing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-0721-5
DOI :
10.1109/CSSS.2012.506