A MCMC Bayesian approach to binary logistic model for Ka-band propagation effect by rain over Iran

This paper studies the development of a full Bayesian version of binary logistic model for analysis of 99.99% satellite link availability at Ka-band over Iran. To satisfy target availability requirements, several tens of dBs would have to be compensated in the process of system design with a static margin, which is possible only up to some threshold value due to technology limitations or interference to adjacent links constraints. Binary attenuation data are obtained by dividing rain attenuation values exceeded for 0.01% of an average year (A_0.01) for 287 different locations over Iran, into two categories according to imposed critical limiting threshold at each frequency. Through the proposed binary logistic model, the possible effects of explanatory variables on reaching the A_0.01 above the critical threshold are investigated. The variables include geographic regions, employed satellite, height above sea level, and rainfall as well as the interaction between geographic regions and satellite. The possibility of existence of the interaction effects for rainfall explanatory variable is investigated by constructing an extended model which includes the interaction between rainfall and other variables. The results of these two models are compared via some Bayesian Criteria (DIC) which confirmed the superiority of the extended model.