Applying GM(h,N) to discuss the enrollment drops in universities

In the past two decades, under the double impact of the increasing numbers of universities and the falling birth rate, the enrollment drops have struck many universities. Plus, the lower birth rate results in the impact of universities´ enrollment shortfall. Based on the questions above, the paper proposes the method to find the reasons of the main impact factor. First, we collect the factors of total admission numbers of technological and vocational colleges, the birth numbers of the year, the number of primary school and junior high school graduates in the past decade to do the GM(h,N) weighting analysis model in the grey system theory. By doing this, it is able to understand which factor has the greatest correlation degree. Then the traditional regression method is used to verify the data. The result shows that the numbers of junior high school graduates has the greatest impact while the least impact factor is the birth numbers of the year because it takes 18 years to be enrolled in universities.