Title :
A Case Study on the Effects of Predicted Wind Farm Power Outputs on Unscheduled Flows in Transmission Networks
Author :
Mohanpurkar, Manish ; Suryanarayanan, S.
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electr. & Comput. Eng., Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO, USA
Abstract :
The impact of forecasting error in wind power on unscheduled flows (USFs) is investigated here. Normal distribution is used to model the forecasting error distribution. Upper and lower bounds on wind farm output with a positive correlation of errors are obtained. Monte Carlo simulations using the interval forecasts of wind farm outputs are run to obtain interval branch flows. Ordinary least squares and ridge regression are used for the estimation of a mathematical artifact - minor loop flows - for accommodating USFs. Model adequacy and statistical inferences of the loop flow estimates is discussed. Impact of forecasting error on distributions of estimated loop flow is explored on the basis of Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) and chi-square goodness-of-fit tests.
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; normal distribution; regression analysis; transmission networks; wind power plants; Kolmogorov-Smirnov test; Monte Carlo simulations; chi-square goodness-of-fit test; forecasting error distribution; interval branch flows; interval forecasts; loop flow estimates; minor loop flows; model adequacy; normal distribution; ordinary least squares; ridge regression; statistical inferences; transmission networks; unscheduled flows; wind farm power outputs; wind power; Aggregates; Estimation; Forecasting; Predictive models; Schedules; Wind farms; Wind forecasting; Available transmission capability; outage; topology; transmission network; unscheduled flows; wind farm penetration;
Conference_Titel :
Green Technologies Conference, 2013 IEEE
Conference_Location :
Denver, CO
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-5191-1
DOI :
10.1109/GreenTech.2013.50
