Early estimation of project performance: The application of a system dynamics rework model

We address the problem of rework in complex project management by the use of System Dynamics modeling and estimated planned performance profiles. We propose that early indications of problems arising with a project can be generated by comparing estimated planed performance profiles with actual performance profiles. Estimating project quality for use in the System Dynamics models thus becomes the key challenge to enable the use of this leading indicator. Estimates of project quality based on experience of project type, size and complexity within the organization can be used to parameterize the System Dynamics models to generate model generated estimated planned performance profiles. Early results indicate that the morphology of these profiles shows good agreement with project data emerging from the metrics initiative within Thales UK.