An Effective Tool for the Tropical Cyclones Monitoring

It has been recently suggested that concrete processes occurring on the Sun (e.g. sunspots) significantly affect the tropical cyclogenesis. Despite this finding the current understanding of the processes that generate tropical cyclones is still limited. We herewith present a new complex monitoring tool for the collection and storage of relevant environmental information to solve the problem of the tropical cyclone prediction. More specifically, a three-level methodology for making decisions on the dynamical evolution of the ocean-atmosphere system is suggested. This methodology is based on a recently proposed environmental instability indicator and the use of sequential analysis process within which a stage of training is established, when all boundaries are located. Effectiveness of this methodology is assessed by examination of several examples of tropical hurricanes. More specifically, it is demonstrated how this tool can be employed to monitor the tropical hurricanes, like Katrina (2005), Irene (2011) and Isaac (2012).