Title :
Research on Population Size Forecasting Method for Emergency Evacuation at School
Author :
Wang Jingjing ; Deng Yunfeng ; Gao Yukun
Author_Institution :
Univ. of Sci. & Technol. Beijing, Beijing, China
Abstract :
Emergency evacuation is an important means to reduce casualties in coping with emergencies. Before issuing evacuation orders, forecasting the population size is the basis of all the evacuation plans. In previous studies, researchers usually use resident population or a fixed value instead of the population size of evacuation, without considering the diversity of the number of evacuees at different times. Based on a statistical analysis of the number of people going in and out at school accommodation area, according to the changing rule of the number of evacuees at different times, this paper presents a method using conversion factors to calculate the number of evacuees in a specific area, and verifies differences in gender and education also can cause the fluctuations of the number, which provides methodological guidance for forecasting the population size in emergency evacuation.
Keywords :
demography; educational institutions; emergency management; forecasting theory; gender issues; planning; statistical analysis; casualties; conversion factors; education; emergency evacuation; evacuation orders; evacuation plans; evacuees; gender; population size forecasting; resident population; school accommodation area; statistical analysis; Automation; Manufacturing; conversion factor; emergency evacuation; population size; time difference;
Conference_Titel :
Digital Manufacturing and Automation (ICDMA), 2013 Fourth International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Qingdao
DOI :
10.1109/ICDMA.2013.261