Using rare event modeling & networking to build scenarios and forecast the future

Recent history has reminded society that prediction in the forms of scenario generation, red-teaming, war-gaming, and future planning must incorporate innovative perspectives such as rare, but impactful, events and multiple phased events. Rare event modeling is based on the premise that important events can be dominated by outliers. Current forecasting focuses on probable events. Likewise, multiple-phased actions can create paradigm shifts that move events in a new direction or push them to higher levels of impact. Therefore, impact potential must be understood, calculated, and utilized. Our network-based scenario development system provides for state-change and high-impact scenario events that enable impact measures to be calculated and used by decision makers.