Recent developments in risk management in projects

Author

Tysiak, Wolfgang

Author_Institution

Fac. of Bus. Adm., Univ. of Appl. Sci. Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany

Volume

02

fYear

2013

fDate

12-14 Sept. 2013

Firstpage

543

Lastpage

546

Abstract

This contribution to IDAACS2013 is in some sense a continuation of the talk in Prague in 2011. It presents some developments that were elaborated in the meantime (chapter II), but also some totally new ideas (chapter III). In chapter II it is shown that PERT systematically underestimates the real risk. Therefore it is very dangerous to rely on PERT´s results. Chapter III deals with the buffers of individual tasks. The main result of this part is that you have to understand that if distributions or densities are introduced in the risk management process everything has to be described by distributions, even the buffers of the individual activities.

Keywords

Monte Carlo methods; PERT; project management; risk management; IDAACS2013; Monte Carlo simulation; PERT; Prague; project evaluation review techniques; project management; risk management; Artificial intelligence; Conferences; Gaussian distribution; Monte Carlo methods; Project management; Risk management; Standards; Monte Carlo simulation; PERT; buffer allocation; risk management;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems (IDAACS), 2013 IEEE 7th International Conference on

Conference_Location

Berlin

Print_ISBN

978-1-4799-1426-5

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/IDAACS.2013.6662983

Filename

6662983