Concept of stochastic modeling for High-Power Electromagnetics (HPEM) risk analysis at system level

This paper focuses on specific aspects of a systematic High-Power Electromagnetic (HPEM) risk analysis at system level. In the first part of the paper the Threat Scenario, Effect and Criticality Analysis (TSECA), a novel risk analysis methodology is introduced. The TSECA is based on the general principle of the well established Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), which has been modified to analyze HPEM scenarios. In the second part of the paper particular aspects concerning the description and modeling of threat scenarios are discussed. Due to existing uncertainties of the scenario and system description as well as the stochastic nature of key parameters, risk analysis requires appropriate stochastic models.