Title :
Random load fluctuations and collapse probability of a power system operating near codimension 1 saddle-node bifurcation
Author :
Podolsky, Dmitry ; Turitsyn, Konstantin
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Mech. Eng., Massachusetts Inst. of Technol., Cambridge, MA, USA
Abstract :
For a power system operating in the vicinity of the power transfer limit of its transmission system, effect of stochastic fluctuations of power loads can become critical as a sufficiently strong such fluctuation may activate voltage instability and lead to a large scale collapse of the system. Considering the effect of these stochastic fluctuations near a codimension 1 saddle-node bifurcation, we explicitly calculate the autocorrelation function of the state vector and show how its behavior explains the phenomenon of critical slowing-down often observed for power systems on the threshold of blackout. We also estimate the collapse probability/mean clearing time for the power system and construct a new indicator function signaling the proximity to a large scale collapse. The new indicator function is easy to estimate in real time using data from PMU and SCADA information about power load fluctuations on the nodes of the grid. We discuss control strategies leading to the minimization of the collapse probability.
Keywords :
SCADA systems; bifurcation; correlation methods; load regulation; phasor measurement; power system stability; voltage control; PMU; SCADA information; autocorrelation function; codimension 1 saddle-node bifurcation; collapse probability minimization; indicator function; power load fluctuations; power loads; power system operation; power transfer limit; random load fluctuations; stochastic fluctuation effect; voltage instability; Bifurcation; Correlation; Jacobian matrices; Power system dynamics; Power system stability; Vectors; Blackout prevention; emergency control; phasor measurements; power system stability; voltage stability; wide-area measurements and control;
Conference_Titel :
Power and Energy Society General Meeting (PES), 2013 IEEE
Conference_Location :
Vancouver, BC
DOI :
10.1109/PESMG.2013.6672637