Title :
Mid-term electricity market clearing price forecasting using multiple support vector machine
Author :
Xing Yan ; Chowdhury, Nurul A.
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electr. & Comput. Eng., Univ. of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
Abstract :
In a deregulated electricity market, offering the appropriate amount of electricity at the right time with the right bidding price is of paramount importance. Mid-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting has become essential for resources reallocation, maintenance scheduling, bilateral contracting, budgeting and planning purposes. Although there are many techniques available for short-term electricity MCP forecasting, very little has been done in the area of mid-term electricity MCP forecasting. In this paper, a mid-term electricity MCP forecasting model utilizing multiple support vector machine (SVM) is presented. Two modules: data classification and price forecasting modules are designed to first pre-process the input data into corresponding price zones and then forecast the electricity prices. The proposed model showed improved forecasting accuracy on both peak prices and overall system compared to the forecasting model using single SVM. PJM interconnection data are used to test the proposed model.
Keywords :
forecasting theory; power engineering computing; power markets; power system planning; pricing; support vector machines; tendering; bidding price; bilateral contracting; budgeting purpose; data classification; deregulated electricity market; maintenance scheduling; midterm electricity market clearing price forecasting; multiple support vector machine; planning purpose; price forecasting modules; resources reallocation; Accuracy; Data models; Electricity; Electricity supply industry; Forecasting; Predictive models; Support vector machines; Classification; deregulated electric market; electricity market clearing price; electricity price forecasting; support vector machine (SVM);
Conference_Titel :
Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe (ISGT EUROPE), 2013 4th IEEE/PES
Conference_Location :
Lyngby
DOI :
10.1109/ISGTEurope.2013.6695249